Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig
Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-09-20 · 15:30 CET
DWWWL
WLWLWThe score model made a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely outcome at 50%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 65%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bayer Leverkusen 1.96 – 1.38 RB Leipzig.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen win | 50.3% | 50.7% | -0.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.5% | 22.5% | +1.0% | ✗ |
| RB Leipzig win | 26.2% | 26.8% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.9% | 71.9% | -7.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.9% | 53.1% | -10.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 65.1% | 70.9% | -5.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 47.9% | 50.1% | -2.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bayer Leverkusen 42.3 / RB Leipzig 42.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.