Werder Bremen vs Augsburg
Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-09-19 · 15:30 CET
LLLWD
WLWWDThe score model makes a Werder Bremen win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 70.0% vs 58.5% implied (+11.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Werder Bremen 1.46 – 1.31 Augsburg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen win | 39.6% | 40.5% | -0.8% |
| Draw | 27.6% | 25.1% | +2.4% |
| Augsburg win | 32.8% | 34.4% | -1.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.1% | 62.5% | -10.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.0% | 41.5% | -11.6% |
| Both teams to score | 57.0% | 64.4% | -7.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.3% | 42.3% | -9.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Werder Bremen 42.9 / Augsburg 42.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.