Stuttgart vs Dortmund
Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-09-19 · 18:30 CET
WDLWL
WWWWWThe score model makes a Dortmund win the most likely outcome at 40%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 66%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 58.4% vs 52.1% implied (+6.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Stuttgart 1.66 – 1.75 Dortmund.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stuttgart win | 36.0% | 41.6% | -5.6% |
| Draw | 24.3% | 24.7% | -0.4% |
| Dortmund win | 39.6% | 33.7% | +5.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.2% | 68.9% | -2.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44.4% | 49.9% | -5.5% |
| Both teams to score | 67.8% | 70.4% | -2.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.6% | 47.9% | -6.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Stuttgart 42.8 / Dortmund 42.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.