Eintracht Frankfurt vs Freiburg
Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-09-19 · 15:30 CET
LDDLW
LWWWWThe score model makes an Eintracht Frankfurt win the most likely outcome at 46%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 68%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Eintracht Frankfurt win — 46.4% vs 41.3% implied (+5.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.94 – 1.54 Freiburg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 46.4% | 41.3% | +5.1% |
| Draw | 23.6% | 25.2% | -1.7% |
| Freiburg win | 30.0% | 33.5% | -3.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.7% | 62.8% | +4.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46.0% | 42.5% | +3.5% |
| Both teams to score | 68.2% | 64.7% | +3.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.8% | 43.2% | -2.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Eintracht Frankfurt 42.9 / Freiburg 42.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.