Eintracht Frankfurt vs Freiburg
Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-09-19 · 15:30 CET
WDLWL
WDWLLThe score model made an Eintracht Frankfurt win the most likely outcome at 47%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 67%). It finished 2:2 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.95 – 1.53 Freiburg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 46.7% | 38.3% | +8.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.6% | 25.4% | -1.8% | ✓ |
| Freiburg win | 29.7% | 36.4% | -6.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.5% | 63.0% | +4.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45.8% | 42.8% | +3.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 68.0% | 65.6% | +2.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.6% | 43.9% | -3.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Eintracht Frankfurt 42.3 / Freiburg 42.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Eintracht Frankfurt vs Freiburg in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.