B. Monchengladbach vs Mainz
Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-09-19 · 15:30 CET
LWLLL
LWDWLThe score model makes a Mainz win the most likely outcome at 37%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 68.9% vs 59.7% implied (+9.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: B. Monchengladbach 1.40 – 1.41 Mainz.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| B. Monchengladbach win | 36.0% | 32.9% | +3.1% |
| Draw | 27.4% | 25.8% | +1.6% |
| Mainz win | 36.6% | 41.3% | -4.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.4% | 60.9% | -7.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.1% | 40.3% | -9.2% |
| Both teams to score | 58.1% | 63.2% | -5.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.6% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: B. Monchengladbach 42.9 / Mainz 42.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.