Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin
Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-09-18 · 20:30 CET
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LLWDDThe score model made a Bayern Munich win the most likely outcome at 87%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 81%). It finished 7:0 (HT 3:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bayern Munich 3.57 – 0.78 Union Berlin.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich win | 86.9% | 91.7% | -4.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 9.0% | 5.6% | +3.4% | ✗ |
| Union Berlin win | 4.1% | 2.7% | +1.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 93.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80.9% | 87.2% | -6.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 63.2% | 75.1% | -11.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 53.1% | 50.3% | +2.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 85.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 56.1% | 67.1% | -11.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bayern Munich 42.4 / Union Berlin 42.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.