Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin
Bundesliga, Germany · 2026-09-18 · 20:30 CET
WWWDW
WWDLLThe score model makes a Bayern Munich win the most likely outcome at 87%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 81%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 36.9% vs 32.4% implied (+4.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bayern Munich 3.57 – 0.78 Union Berlin.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich win | 86.9% | 87.7% | -0.8% |
| Draw | 9.0% | 8.2% | +0.8% |
| Union Berlin win | 4.1% | 4.1% | -0.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 93.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80.9% | 82.8% | -2.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 63.1% | 67.6% | -4.5% |
| Both teams to score | 53.2% | 53.1% | +0.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 85.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 56.0% | 60.4% | -4.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bayern Munich 42.8 / Union Berlin 42.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.