Villefranche vs Quevilly Rouen
National, France · 2026-11-07 · 14:45 CET
LLLWD
DDLWLThe score model makes a Quevilly Rouen win the most likely outcome at 36%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Both teams to score — 54.9% vs 50.5% implied (+4.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Villefranche 1.27 – 1.33 Quevilly Rouen.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villefranche win | 33.5% | 39.5% | -6.0% |
| Draw | 30.4% | 27.4% | +2.9% |
| Quevilly Rouen win | 36.2% | 33.1% | +3.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.2% | 45.0% | +3.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.4% | 25.8% | +0.6% |
| Both teams to score | 54.9% | 50.5% | +4.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.0% | 31.9% | +1.1% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Villefranche 45.8 / Quevilly Rouen 38.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Villefranche vs Quevilly Rouen in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.