Thionville vs Cannes
National, France · 2026-11-07 · 14:45 CET
DLLLD
DDWLWThe score model makes a Cannes win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 71.7% vs 68.4% implied (+3.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Thionville 1.07 – 1.62 Cannes.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thionville win | 23.1% | 22.8% | +0.3% |
| Draw | 28.5% | 25.9% | +2.6% |
| Cannes win | 48.4% | 51.4% | -2.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.3% | 51.5% | -1.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.3% | 31.6% | -3.3% |
| Both teams to score | 54.5% | 53.8% | +0.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.8% | 35.7% | -2.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Thionville 11 / Cannes 11.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Thionville vs Cannes in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.