Rouen vs Bastia
National, France · 2026-11-07 · 14:45 CET
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DLDDWThe score model makes a Rouen win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 70.6% vs 66.6% implied (+4.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Rouen 1.59 – 0.90 Bastia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rouen win | 51.7% | 51.6% | +0.0% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 26.0% | +2.9% |
| Bastia win | 19.4% | 22.3% | -2.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.4% | 47.4% | -2.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.1% | 27.9% | -3.9% |
| Both teams to score | 49.1% | 50.3% | -1.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.4% | 33.4% | -4.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Rouen 42.1 / Bastia 10.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Rouen vs Bastia in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.