Paris 13 Atl. vs La Roche
National, France · 2026-11-07 · 14:45 CET
DWLWD
WWWLWThe score model makes a La Roche win the most likely outcome at 45%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 80.5% vs 71.7% implied (+8.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Paris 13 Atl. 0.91 – 1.36 La Roche.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris 13 Atl. win | 23.2% | 32.3% | -9.1% |
| Draw | 31.7% | 29.4% | +2.3% |
| La Roche win | 45.1% | 38.3% | +6.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.7% | 47.4% | -7.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.5% | 28.3% | -8.7% |
| Both teams to score | 46.6% | 53.2% | -6.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.1% | 32.9% | -3.8% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Paris 13 Atl. 40 / La Roche 10 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Paris 13 Atl. vs La Roche in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.