Bourg en Bresse vs Le Puy-en-Velay
National, France · 2026-11-07 · 14:45 CET
DDLLL
WLWWDThe score model makes a Le Puy-en-Velay win the most likely outcome at 41%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 80.6% vs 69.6% implied (+11.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bourg en Bresse 1.00 – 1.27 Le Puy-en-Velay.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bourg en Bresse win | 27.1% | 25.6% | +1.5% |
| Draw | 32.4% | 26.6% | +5.9% |
| Le Puy-en-Velay win | 40.5% | 47.8% | -7.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.5% | 50.1% | -10.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.4% | 30.4% | -11.0% |
| Both teams to score | 47.5% | 53.8% | -6.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.2% | 35.1% | -7.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Bourg en Bresse 39.8 / Le Puy-en-Velay 31.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Bourg en Bresse vs Le Puy-en-Velay in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.