Aubagne vs Amiens
National, France · 2026-11-07 · 14:45 CET
WWLLL
WDWDDThe score model makes an Amiens win the most likely outcome at 53%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 37%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 82.7% vs 71.6% implied (+11.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Aubagne 0.72 – 1.44 Amiens.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aubagne win | 16.7% | 23.2% | -6.5% |
| Draw | 30.7% | 26.6% | +4.1% |
| Amiens win | 52.6% | 50.2% | +2.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.6% | 47.7% | -11.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.3% | 28.4% | -11.1% |
| Both teams to score | 41.0% | 51.4% | -10.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.2% | 33.8% | -8.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Aubagne 39.3 / Amiens 11.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Aubagne vs Amiens in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.