Valenciennes vs Orleans
National, France · 2026-11-05 · 20:45 CET
LWLDL
LDDLDThe score model makes a Valenciennes win the most likely outcome at 36%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 77.0% vs 71.0% implied (+5.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Valenciennes 1.27 – 1.18 Orleans.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valenciennes win | 36.4% | 42.8% | -6.4% |
| Draw | 31.4% | 28.4% | +3.1% |
| Orleans win | 32.1% | 28.8% | +3.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.2% | 48.8% | -4.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.0% | 29.0% | -5.9% |
| Both teams to score | 51.7% | 54.1% | -2.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.5% | 34.2% | -5.7% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Valenciennes 38.3 / Orleans 45.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Valenciennes vs Orleans in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.