Valenciennes vs Le Puy-en-Velay
National, France · 2026-09-26 · 20:45 CET
LWLDL
WLWWDThe score model made a Le Puy-en-Velay win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Valenciennes 1.14 – 1.42 Le Puy-en-Velay.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valenciennes win | 28.4% | 40.7% | -12.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 30.0% | 28.4% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| Le Puy-en-Velay win | 41.6% | 30.9% | +10.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.9% | 51.2% | -4.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.4% | 31.8% | -6.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.2% | 55.8% | -2.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.2% | 35.3% | +2.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Valenciennes 35.9 / Le Puy-en-Velay 27 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Valenciennes vs Le Puy-en-Velay in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.