Bourg en Bresse vs Concarneau
National, France · 2026-09-26 · 20:45 CET
DDLLL
WDWDLThe score model made a Concarneau win the most likely outcome at 42%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 32%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bourg en Bresse 0.83 – 1.17 Concarneau.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bourg en Bresse win | 24.3% | 22.2% | +2.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 34.1% | 29.3% | +4.7% | ✓ |
| Concarneau win | 41.7% | 48.5% | -6.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 61.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32.4% | 42.2% | -9.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14.3% | 23.3% | -8.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 40.9% | 46.7% | -5.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 58.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.0% | 29.7% | -6.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bourg en Bresse 37.9 / Concarneau 37.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Bourg en Bresse vs Concarneau in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.