Caen vs Rouen
National, France · 2026-09-24 · 20:45 CET
WLWLW
WWLWLThe score model made a Rouen win the most likely outcome at 35%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 3:2 (HT 3:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Caen 1.11 – 1.16 Rouen.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caen win | 32.5% | 33.7% | -1.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 32.4% | 28.9% | +3.5% | ✗ |
| Rouen win | 35.1% | 37.4% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.7% | 51.1% | -11.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.6% | 31.2% | -11.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 48.0% | 56.7% | -8.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.3% | 35.3% | -8.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Caen 26 / Rouen 41.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Caen vs Rouen in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.