Rouen vs Aubagne
National, France · 2026-09-19 · 14:45 CET
WWLWL
LWWLLThe score model made a Rouen win the most likely outcome at 54%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Rouen 1.59 – 0.82 Aubagne.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rouen win | 54.0% | 58.1% | -4.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.3% | 25.0% | +3.3% | ✗ |
| Aubagne win | 17.6% | 16.8% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.1% | 46.3% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.2% | 26.0% | -3.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 46.0% | 46.1% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.1% | 32.2% | +2.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Rouen 40.5 / Aubagne 36.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Rouen vs Aubagne in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.