Paris 13 Atl. vs Bourg en Bresse
National, France · 2026-09-19 · 14:45 CET
LDWLW
LDDLLThe score model made a draw the most likely outcome at 39%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 22%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Paris 13 Atl. 0.90 – 0.70 Bourg en Bresse.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris 13 Atl. win | 36.3% | 45.6% | -9.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 38.5% | 29.6% | +9.0% | ✓ |
| Bourg en Bresse win | 25.2% | 24.8% | +0.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 49.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 21.7% | 42.5% | -20.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 7.9% | 22.5% | -14.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 31.6% | 47.3% | -15.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 51.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 17.1% | 29.0% | -11.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Paris 13 Atl. 38.4 / Bourg en Bresse 37.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Paris 13 Atl. vs Bourg en Bresse in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.