Le Puy-en-Velay vs Villefranche
National, France · 2026-09-19 · 14:45 CET
LWLWW
DLLLWThe score model made a Le Puy-en-Velay win the most likely outcome at 53%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 4:1 (HT 3:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Le Puy-en-Velay 1.66 – 0.93 Villefranche.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Puy-en-Velay win | 53.0% | 49.6% | +3.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.6% | 26.4% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| Villefranche win | 19.5% | 24.0% | -4.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.9% | 50.0% | -2.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.2% | 29.7% | -3.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 50.6% | 52.3% | -1.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.3% | 34.6% | +4.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Le Puy-en-Velay 26.4 / Villefranche 43.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Le Puy-en-Velay vs Villefranche in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.