Paris 13 Atl. vs Valenciennes
National, France · 2026-08-20 · 20:45 CET
LWDDD
LWLDDThe score model made a Valenciennes win the most likely outcome at 34%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 34%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Paris 13 Atl. 1.00 – 1.05 Valenciennes.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris 13 Atl. win | 32.0% | 29.4% | +2.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 33.6% | 30.0% | +3.6% | ✗ |
| Valenciennes win | 34.4% | 40.6% | -6.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 62.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33.7% | 43.6% | -9.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.2% | 24.2% | -8.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 42.7% | 49.7% | -7.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 57.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.5% | 30.3% | -7.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Paris 13 Atl. 35.7 / Valenciennes 33.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.