Caen vs Aubagne
National, France · 2026-08-20 · 20:45 CET
WLWLW
LLWDDThe score model made a Caen win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Caen 1.70 – 1.02 Aubagne.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caen win | 52.0% | 53.9% | -1.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.7% | 24.5% | +2.2% | ✗ |
| Aubagne win | 21.3% | 21.7% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.3% | 56.1% | -4.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.2% | 35.6% | -6.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.7% | 56.0% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.1% | 38.1% | -2.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Caen 22.7 / Aubagne 33.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.