Villefranche vs Paris 13 Atl.
National, France · 2026-08-14 · 19:00 CET
WLLLL
LWDDDThe score model made a Villefranche win the most likely outcome at 41%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 33%). It finished 2:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Villefranche 1.16 – 0.86 Paris 13 Atl..
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villefranche win | 41.0% | 42.3% | -1.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 33.6% | 29.7% | +3.9% | ✗ |
| Paris 13 Atl. win | 25.4% | 28.0% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 61.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32.7% | 43.1% | -10.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14.5% | 24.1% | -9.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 41.1% | 48.9% | -7.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 57.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.2% | 30.2% | -7.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Villefranche 39.9 / Paris 13 Atl. 34.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.