Versailles vs Le Puy-en-Velay
National, France · 2026-08-14 · 19:00 CET
WWLLL
LWLDDThe score model made a Versailles win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Versailles 1.42 – 1.22 Le Puy-en-Velay.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Versailles win | 40.1% | 42.9% | -2.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.1% | 28.0% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| Le Puy-en-Velay win | 30.8% | 29.1% | +1.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.0% | 49.5% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.2% | 29.1% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.9% | 53.9% | +1.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.6% | 34.1% | +7.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Versailles 40 / Le Puy-en-Velay 21.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.