Valenciennes vs Bourg en Bresse
National, France · 2026-08-14 · 19:00 CET
LWLDD
WLLLLThe score model made a Valenciennes win the most likely outcome at 42%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 33%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Valenciennes 1.17 – 0.84 Bourg en Bresse.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valenciennes win | 41.9% | 50.8% | -8.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 33.4% | 26.8% | +6.7% | ✗ |
| Bourg en Bresse win | 24.6% | 22.4% | +2.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 61.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32.8% | 47.2% | -14.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14.6% | 27.0% | -12.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 41.0% | 49.6% | -8.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 56.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.6% | 32.5% | -10.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Valenciennes 31.7 / Bourg en Bresse 34.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.