Quevilly Rouen vs Concarneau
National, France · 2026-08-14 · 19:00 CET
LDLWD
LDWDDThe score model made a Concarneau win the most likely outcome at 36%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Quevilly Rouen 1.18 – 1.25 Concarneau.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quevilly Rouen win | 33.0% | 34.9% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.7% | 29.6% | +1.1% | ✓ |
| Concarneau win | 36.3% | 35.5% | +0.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.0% | 45.1% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.9% | 25.6% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.2% | 51.2% | -0.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.6% | 30.7% | +7.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Quevilly Rouen 31.9 / Concarneau 34.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.