Caen vs Valenciennes
National, France · 2026-08-07 · 20:45 CET
WLWLW
LWLDDThe score model made a Caen win the most likely outcome at 46%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 4:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Caen 1.41 – 0.97 Valenciennes.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caen win | 45.5% | 40.7% | +4.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 30.1% | 28.4% | +1.7% | ✗ |
| Valenciennes win | 24.4% | 30.9% | -6.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.7% | 49.7% | -7.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.9% | 29.7% | -7.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 48.7% | 54.4% | -5.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.4% | 34.2% | -8.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Caen 21.2 / Valenciennes 32.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.