Bourg en Bresse vs Villefranche
National, France · 2026-08-07 · 20:45 CET
WLLLL
WLLLLThe score model made a draw the most likely outcome at 35%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 30%). It finished 3:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bourg en Bresse 0.96 – 0.96 Villefranche.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bourg en Bresse win | 32.7% | 40.8% | -8.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 35.0% | 29.5% | +5.5% | ✗ |
| Villefranche win | 32.3% | 29.6% | +2.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 59.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30.2% | 42.6% | -12.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12.9% | 23.3% | -10.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 39.8% | 48.8% | -8.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 56.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.3% | 29.2% | -6.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bourg en Bresse 34.9 / Villefranche 40.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.