Montpellier W vs Lyon W
Division 1 Women, France · 2026-10-31 · 18:00 CET
LDDDL
WDWWWThe score model makes a Lyon W win the most likely outcome at 85%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 69%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 52.6% vs 26.8% implied (+25.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Montpellier W 0.58 – 2.97 Lyon W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier W win | 4.3% | 2.8% | +1.5% |
| Draw | 11.1% | 6.1% | +5.0% |
| Lyon W win | 84.6% | 91.0% | -6.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.8% | 86.0% | -17.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47.4% | 73.2% | -25.8% |
| Both teams to score | 42.3% | 37.0% | +5.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 82.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 52.1% | 65.6% | -13.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Montpellier W 28.8 / Lyon W 23.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Montpellier W vs Lyon W in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.