Marseille W vs Lens W
Division 1 Women, France · 2026-09-12 · 18:00 CET
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LWLLLThe score model made a Marseille W win the most likely outcome at 50%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Marseille W 1.67 – 1.12 Lens W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille W win | 50.0% | 53.2% | -3.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.7% | 25.5% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Lens W win | 25.3% | 21.3% | +4.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.9% | 52.3% | +0.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.6% | 32.4% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.0% | 53.8% | +1.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.4% | 36.7% | +0.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Marseille W 14.7 / Lens W 14.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.