KTP vs Mikkeli
Ykkonen, Finland · 2026-09-25 · 17:30 CET
WWDLD
DWDDLThe score model made a KTP win the most likely outcome at 71%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: KTP 2.23 – 0.79 Mikkeli.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KTP win | 70.5% | 64.7% | +5.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 17.4% | 19.6% | -2.2% | ✓ |
| Mikkeli win | 12.1% | 15.7% | -3.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.1% | 66.2% | -8.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.7% | 46.2% | -10.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.4% | 59.9% | -11.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.6% | 46.0% | -1.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: KTP 26.3 / Mikkeli 28.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open KTP vs Mikkeli in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.