SJK Akatemia vs KaPa
Ykkonen, Finland · 2026-09-19 · 17:00 CET
DLDWL
LWWDLThe score model made an SJK Akatemia win the most likely outcome at 43%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 2:3 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: SJK Akatemia 1.74 – 1.52 KaPa.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJK Akatemia win | 43.5% | 35.6% | +7.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.4% | 24.6% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| KaPa win | 34.1% | 39.8% | -5.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.3% | 62.0% | +1.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.2% | 41.3% | -0.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 64.2% | 64.3% | -0.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.1% | 42.5% | -9.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: SJK Akatemia 39.7 / KaPa 39.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open SJK Akatemia vs KaPa in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.