PK-35 vs KTP
Ykkonen, Finland · 2026-09-19 · 16:00 CET
WLDLW
WWDLDThe score model made a KTP win the most likely outcome at 39%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: PK-35 1.14 – 1.23 KTP.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PK-35 win | 34.4% | 30.9% | +3.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.0% | 26.0% | +1.0% | ✗ |
| KTP win | 38.6% | 43.1% | -4.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.4% | 55.7% | -13.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.7% | 35.1% | -13.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.9% | 58.6% | -10.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.1% | 37.2% | -8.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: PK-35 37.3 / KTP 25.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open PK-35 vs KTP in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.