JaPS vs Ekenas
Ykkonen, Finland · 2026-09-18 · 17:30 CET
LWLLW
DLDLWThe score model made an Ekenas win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: JaPS 1.30 – 1.56 Ekenas.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JaPS win | 32.0% | 37.6% | -5.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.3% | 26.0% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Ekenas win | 43.6% | 36.4% | +7.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.4% | 60.3% | -5.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.1% | 39.9% | -7.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 57.2% | 63.7% | -6.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.7% | 40.8% | -11.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: JaPS 39.8 / Ekenas 33.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open JaPS vs Ekenas in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.