Bournemouth vs Liverpool
Premier League, England · 2026-09-20 · 15:00 CET
DLLWW
DWLWWThe score model made a Liverpool win the most likely outcome at 42%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bournemouth 1.45 – 1.66 Liverpool.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 32.8% | 30.9% | +1.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.5% | 25.3% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| Liverpool win | 41.6% | 43.7% | -2.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.2% | 62.6% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.8% | 42.6% | -4.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 63.0% | 65.0% | -2.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.1% | 42.6% | -8.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bournemouth 47.6 / Liverpool 47.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Bournemouth vs Liverpool in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.