Tottenham vs Aston Villa
Premier League, England · 2026-09-19 · 13:30 CET
DLDWW
LWDWWThe score model made an Aston Villa win the most likely outcome at 39%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 2:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Tottenham 1.40 – 1.49 Aston Villa.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 34.4% | 49.1% | -14.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.1% | 26.2% | +1.0% | ✗ |
| Aston Villa win | 38.5% | 24.7% | +13.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.1% | 55.2% | -0.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.7% | 34.8% | -2.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 59.4% | 57.5% | +1.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.6% | 37.5% | -1.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Tottenham 47.7 / Aston Villa 47.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Tottenham vs Aston Villa in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.