Brighton vs Arsenal
Premier League, England · 2026-09-19 · 16:00 CET
DWWWW
WLWWWThe score model made an Arsenal win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 3:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Brighton 0.99 – 1.65 Arsenal.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton win | 21.5% | 20.1% | +1.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.8% | 24.2% | +2.6% | ✗ |
| Arsenal win | 51.7% | 55.8% | -4.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.3% | 54.3% | -5.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.4% | 33.9% | -6.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.0% | 54.4% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.4% | 36.7% | -1.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Brighton 47.8 / Arsenal 47.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Brighton vs Arsenal in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.