Brentford vs Chelsea
Premier League, England · 2026-09-18 · 21:00 CET
DDWDL
DLWWLThe score model made a Brentford win the most likely outcome at 41%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). It finished 3:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Brentford 1.65 – 1.49 Chelsea.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford win | 40.7% | 36.9% | +3.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.7% | 25.9% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| Chelsea win | 33.6% | 37.3% | -3.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.7% | 63.5% | -2.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.4% | 43.2% | -4.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 63.6% | 66.6% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.9% | 42.7% | +0.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Brentford 47.8 / Chelsea 47.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Brentford vs Chelsea in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.