Manchester City vs Bournemouth
Premier League, England · 2026-08-23 · 15:00 CET
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DDLDDThe score model made a Manchester City win the most likely outcome at 65%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 60%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Manchester City 2.17 – 0.94 Bournemouth.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City win | 64.6% | 64.2% | +0.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 20.8% | 19.8% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| Bournemouth win | 14.6% | 16.0% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.2% | 65.9% | -5.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.8% | 45.5% | -7.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.8% | 60.7% | -5.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.3% | 45.6% | -3.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Manchester City 46.5 / Bournemouth 46.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.