Everton vs Crystal Palace
Premier League, England · 2026-08-22 · 16:00 CET
LLWDD
DLLLWThe score model made an Everton win the most likely outcome at 40%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 39%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Everton 1.25 – 1.02 Crystal Palace.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 40.4% | 42.6% | -2.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 30.6% | 28.2% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| Crystal Palace win | 29.0% | 29.2% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.4% | 49.0% | -9.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.3% | 28.6% | -9.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 46.5% | 54.1% | -7.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.8% | 33.0% | -6.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Everton 46.5 / Crystal Palace 46.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.