Brentford vs Tottenham
Premier League, England · 2026-08-22 · 18:30 CET
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LWLLDThe score model made a Brentford win the most likely outcome at 49%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 62%). It finished 3:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Brentford 1.86 – 1.32 Tottenham.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford win | 49.1% | 43.1% | +6.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.4% | 26.4% | -2.0% | ✗ |
| Tottenham win | 26.5% | 30.5% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.6% | 55.2% | +6.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.3% | 33.6% | +5.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 62.8% | 58.3% | +4.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.1% | 38.4% | +5.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Brentford 46.5 / Tottenham 46.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.