Hereford vs Spennymoor
National League North, England · 2026-09-05 · 16:00 CET
WWWDL
LLDDLThe score model made a Hereford win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hereford 1.57 – 1.27 Spennymoor.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hereford win | 44.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Spennymoor win | 30.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.1% | — | — | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hereford 59.6 / Spennymoor 59.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.