Derby vs Swansea
Championship, England · 2026-08-29 · 13:30 CET
LLDLW
WWDWWThe score model made a Derby win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Derby 1.43 – 1.12 Swansea.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby win | 43.4% | 40.9% | +2.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.8% | 28.9% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| Swansea win | 28.7% | 30.1% | -1.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.7% | 45.3% | +1.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.1% | 25.6% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.8% | 51.6% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.9% | 31.0% | -0.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Derby 45.7 / Swansea 56.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.