Arda vs Septemvri Sofia
Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-11-02 · 18:30 CET
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LLLLLThe score model makes an Arda win the most likely outcome at 66%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 2.5 goals — 52.3% vs 43.6% implied (+8.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Arda 2.00 – 0.77 Septemvri Sofia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arda win | 65.8% | 58.0% | +7.9% |
| Draw | 20.9% | 24.6% | -3.6% |
| Septemvri Sofia win | 13.2% | 17.5% | -4.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.3% | 43.6% | +8.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.1% | 24.2% | +5.9% |
| Both teams to score | 46.7% | 43.6% | +3.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.5% | 30.9% | +3.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Arda 44.5 / Septemvri Sofia 41.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Arda vs Septemvri Sofia in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.