Slavia Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Sofia
Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-09-18 · 19:00 CET
LWDLL
LWWLWThe score model made a CSKA 1948 Sofia win the most likely outcome at 42%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Slavia Sofia 1.04 – 1.30 CSKA 1948 Sofia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slavia Sofia win | 29.6% | 21.1% | +8.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.4% | 27.9% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| CSKA 1948 Sofia win | 42.0% | 51.0% | -9.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.5% | 45.5% | -4.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.9% | 25.6% | -4.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.4% | 49.2% | -1.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.4% | 31.5% | -0.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Slavia Sofia 46.1 / CSKA 1948 Sofia 45.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Slavia Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Sofia in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.