Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv
Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-09-19 · 15:30 CET
DLLLL
WWWWLThe score model made a Botev Plovdiv win the most likely outcome at 50%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Septemvri Sofia 1.06 – 1.62 Botev Plovdiv.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Septemvri Sofia win | 24.6% | 23.3% | +1.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.3% | 27.4% | -2.1% | ✗ |
| Botev Plovdiv win | 50.1% | 49.2% | +0.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.3% | 47.3% | +3.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.3% | 26.8% | +1.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.8% | 51.2% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.7% | 33.3% | -7.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Septemvri Sofia 42.4 / Botev Plovdiv 45.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.