Lok. Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia
Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-09-20 · 16:45 CET
LWLDD
DWWDWThe score model made a CSKA Sofia win the most likely outcome at 53%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 34%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lok. Plovdiv 0.69 – 1.37 CSKA Sofia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lok. Plovdiv win | 18.3% | 15.1% | +3.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.6% | 24.9% | +3.7% | ✓ |
| CSKA Sofia win | 53.1% | 60.0% | -6.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 61.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34.0% | 46.2% | -12.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.4% | 25.9% | -10.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 37.5% | 44.8% | -7.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.2% | 31.8% | -5.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lok. Plovdiv 45 / CSKA Sofia 45.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Lok. Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.