Ludogorets vs Botev Vratsa
Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-08-02 · 18:00 CET
WWDDW
LLWLWThe score model made a Ludogorets win the most likely outcome at 77%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 2:1 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ludogorets 2.16 – 0.47 Botev Vratsa.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ludogorets win | 76.5% | 68.6% | +7.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 17.1% | 20.4% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| Botev Vratsa win | 6.4% | 11.0% | -4.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.9% | 50.7% | -1.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.1% | 29.8% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 33.4% | 42.0% | -8.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.7% | 34.8% | -11.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ludogorets 42.9 / Botev Vratsa 43.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.