Botev Plovdiv vs Cherno More
Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-08-01 · 20:15 CET
WLLLW
LLWLLThe score model made a Botev Plovdiv win the most likely outcome at 40%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Botev Plovdiv 1.26 – 1.08 Cherno More.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botev Plovdiv win | 39.7% | 50.5% | -10.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.2% | 26.7% | +2.5% | ✗ |
| Cherno More win | 31.1% | 22.8% | +8.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.5% | 47.2% | -5.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.9% | 27.0% | -6.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.9% | 50.3% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.8% | 32.6% | -9.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Botev Plovdiv 42.7 / Cherno More 42.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.