CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Arda
Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-07-31 · 20:15 CET
WWLWL
WWWWLThe score model made a CSKA 1948 Sofia win the most likely outcome at 43%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: CSKA 1948 Sofia 1.32 – 1.03 Arda.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA 1948 Sofia win | 42.5% | 42.9% | -0.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.7% | 30.1% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Arda win | 28.8% | 27.0% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.7% | 41.9% | -0.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.1% | 22.9% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.7% | 48.4% | -0.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.3% | 29.2% | +7.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: CSKA 1948 Sofia 42.8 / Arda 42.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.