Goias vs CRB
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-11-04 · 00:30 CET
LWWDW
LWDLWThe score model makes a Goias win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Goias win — 42.1% vs 37.6% implied (+4.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Goias 1.49 – 1.30 CRB.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goias win | 42.1% | 37.6% | +4.6% |
| Draw | 24.4% | 28.0% | -3.6% |
| CRB win | 33.5% | 34.5% | -1.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.6% | 52.5% | +0.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.4% | 31.6% | -1.2% |
| Both teams to score | 55.8% | 57.1% | -1.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.1% | 36.5% | -3.4% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Goias 52.9 / CRB 57 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Goias vs CRB in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.